Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
